Seismic safety assessment of concrete gravity dams using metamodel generated fragility surfaces

Concrete gravity dams are essential structures for Quebec, both economically for the supply of electricity and in terms of public safety. Most concrete dams were built in the middle of the 20th century according to standards and analysis methods that have evolved considerably. There is now an urgent need to develop methods of testing structures against earthquakes to secure the province's energy supply. Due to the inherent uncertainties of potential earthquakes and material properties, probabilistic approaches are much more rational than deterministic methods when it comes to prioritising interventions for dam management. This project proposes the implementation of an advanced probabilistic method for assessing the safety of concrete structures, based on the development of multivariate fragility functions. This type of study requires a very high number of non-linear dynamic analyses of complex finite element models. In order to reduce the need for numerical computation, an innovative approach based on the creation of metamodels by deep learning will be used to estimate certain seismic responses and the resulting fragility functions. The project will be developed with the industrial partner Hydro-Québec around the case of the concrete gravity dam at Outardes-3, the highest dam of this type in Quebec. A 3D finite element model of the dam will be developed. It will be recalibrated on experimental modal analysis data, and probabilistic seismic analyses will be performed using seismic excitations compatible with the dam site. The proposed project is of strategic economic and safety importance to Quebec and partner Hydro-Québec. In terms of safety, the project will equip the partner to quantify the level of damage suffered following a seismic event of a given intensity. These tools will also be used by Hydro-Quebec for appropriate economic management of its structures. Keywords: Concrete gravity dam, Earthquake engineering, Seismic safety assessment, Probabilistic analyses, Fragility surfaces, Metamodels, Seismic risk, Parametric analyses, Finite element modelling, Damage limit states.

Scroll to Top